Chris Barrow's Predictions for 2008 (and Review of 2007)

Chris Barrow shares his review of 2007 and predictions for the year ahead…

Looking back - 2007 was the year in dentistry UK in which:

• More principals moved into private practice in order to maintain their standards of customer service and clinical care; 

• The freshly funded and acquisitive corporates pushed the goodwill valuation of practices from one times earning to as high as five times earnings;

• Associate remuneration began to fall (from 50% to as low as 27% in some recruitment advertisements);

• Polish dentists began to return to Poland, having "had enough" of UDA's and were replaced by immigrant dentists from further afield;

• The 2 ½ minute check-up appeared;

• Government sponsored supervised neglect became more visible in existing NHS practices;

• Dentists fell behind on their UDA (and UOA) targets and PCT's started to bully and frighten them with financial threats and penalties;

• Dental laboratories were forced into receivership as lab work declined or was exported;

• Many of the white, male, over-50 dentists leading lives of quiet desperation sold out to the corporates;

• Many of the Asian, male and female, mid-30's dentists started to buy the clapped out practices that the corporates missed;

• Sales of dental membership schemes and interest-free finance facilities reached record levels;

• Web searches for dentistry broke all previous records and dentists began to smarten up their web presence and their overall branding and marketing;

• Dentists became facial aesthetics "experts" and started injecting stuff into patient's faces;

• New business models began to emerge for the delivery of dentistry - treatment co-ordinators, care nurses and hygienist/therapists taking a more active role in the patient's customer service experience;

Overall - the losers just carried on bashing the Nash or sold out - the winners started to think like retailers in the well-being ad healthcare sector.
 
Looking forward - 2008 will be a year in which:

• The winners will invest more and more in branding, marketing and sophisticated customer service and patient journey systems;

• The winners will learn to become entrepreneurs and not just principals;

• The market for all forms of cosmetic dentistry will expand;

• The NHS corporates will continue their acquisition frenzy, whilst less and less dentistry will be delivered by increasingly demoralised staff;

• The Indian sub-continent will be the next growth area for NHS recruitment (as well as laboratory work), with associate remuneration falling down to an average of 25%;

• The Tories will announce their intention to scrap the "new contract" and return to the old system;

• Sales of cosmetic dentistry to the over-50's and the 25-35 age groups will thrive;

• Sales of adult and junior private orthodontics will thrive for those who are prepared to invest in themselves and sever their dependence on PCT's;

• The largest new and emerging market will be for affordable family dentistry provided (via membership schemes) to those middle-England families who will no longer tolerate the NHS;

• Facial aesthetics will be regulated after a media outcry;

• More privately backed corporates will emerge, using City money and expertise, to create market share via economies of scale and standardisation;

• Overseas dental groups will begin to open new sites;

• The number of independently owned practices will decline by at least 20%.

All in all - the gap between the dental "have's" and the dental "have not's" will just get wider.
 
And at Breathe Business we will champion the cause of the smaller independent practice owner.
 
It's going to be a good year.